Fundamental Analysis for Commodities: A Beginner's Trading Guide

EIA inventory reports, COT positioning data, CPI releases, and Fed decisions hit the market every week. Beginner traders see the numbers but have no structured process to turn them into a trade decision.

This guide builds a repeatable weekly workflow for commodity CFD analysis using EIA supply data, COT reports, and CPI/Fed signals. The output is a directional bias for gold, silver, and oil, expressed as a structured checklist that converts data into actionable trade plans on MT5 commodity CFDs.

That bias is applied to three markets: gold, silver, and oil. Each walkthrough ends with a stated weekly direction based on the same data set, not an open question.

What is fundamental analysis?

Fundamental analysis is evaluating a commodity's true value by studying supply and demand variables, macroeconomic data, and market conditions.

In practice, FA means tracking the forces that push supply and demand out of balance. When OPEC announces a production cut, less oil enters the market and prices move higher over the following days and weeks. Not minutes.

Macro data drives commodity prices just as directly as supply news. A higher-than-expected CPI print signals rising inflation, which pushes gold and silver higher as traders seek inflation protection.

Fed rate decisions affect the cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. A rising DXY (the US dollar index) pushes commodity prices lower, because commodities priced in USD become more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

The output of all this analysis is a directional bias: a reasoned view on whether a commodity is set to rise or fall over the next few sessions. That bias matters more than a precise entry signal, because trading against the fundamental direction is a bigger problem than being a few pips off on timing.

Fundamental analysis vs. technical analysis

Fundamental analysis evaluates supply, demand, and macro factors to determine an asset's intrinsic value, while technical analysis uses price charts and volume history to predict movements.

Fundamentals tell you why a market is moving and in which direction. Technicals tell you where and when to act on that view. Used together, they cover more ground than either approach alone.

For beginners trading commodity CFDs, this distinction is practical. FA builds the weekly bias before the chart is even opened. Technicals then handle entry timing and stop placement.

Here's a simple rule: use fundamentals to build your weekly bias, use technicals to time your entry and manage your stop. This keeps trades consistent with the bigger picture and reduces chasing moves after the news breaks.

How commodity markets work

Physical supply and demand set the baseline price. When a drought cuts wheat harvests or OPEC trims oil output, prices move because the underlying commodity becomes scarcer.

Futures markets layer on top of that. They price in what traders expect to happen next, not just what is available today. As a CFD trader, you never take delivery of a barrel of oil or a gold bar. You trade the price movement directly, which makes commodities accessible with a small starting deposit like $25.

Types of commodities and asset classes

The four main commodity categories each behave differently, driven by their own supply and demand dynamics:

• Energy: Prices move on inventory reports, OPEC decisions, and geopolitical risk. Key instruments: Brent crude oil, natural gas. VantoTrade offers Brent Oil CFDs.

• Metals: Split between precious metals (inflation hedge, store of value) and industrial metals (economic demand signals). Key instruments: Gold (XAUUSD), Silver (XAGUSD), aluminum. VantoTrade offers Gold and Silver CFDs.

• Agriculture: Driven by weather, crop reports, and seasonal cycles. Key instruments: wheat, cattle.

• Soft commodities: Tropical crops sensitive to climate and export policy. Key instruments: sugar, cotton, cocoa, coffee.

Key factors that drive commodity prices

Commodity prices are driven by supply-side factors (production, weather, geopolitics), demand-side factors (macro data, inflation, currency), and trader positioning.

Supply-side drivers: production, weather, and geopolitics

Supply-side drivers control how much of a commodity is physically available. Three forces matter most for commodity CFD traders:

Production decisions (OPEC output quotas for oil)

Weather disruptions (hurricanes, droughts)

Geopolitical events (sanctions, conflicts near shipping routes, mine closures)

OPEC output decisions directly set oil supply. When member nations agree to cut production by 1 million barrels per day, fewer barrels reach the market and prices rise.

Weather can shut down production fast. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico force offshore oil platforms to halt operations, while droughts in major growing regions cut agricultural commodity harvests and tighten supply.

Geopolitical events remove supply from global markets. Sanctions on Russia or Iran oil exports reduce the barrels available to buyers, and conflicts near the Strait of Hormuz raise the risk of disrupted tanker routes that carry roughly 20% of global oil supply.

Metals face similar risks through mine closures. A government-ordered shutdown of a copper or gold mine cuts output and tightens global supply enough to move futures prices.

Demand-side drivers: macro data, inflation, and currency

Three macro forces shape demand for every major commodity:

• USD strength (DXY): A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand.

• Interest rate decisions: Higher rates raise the cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and slow economic growth, cutting industrial demand for oil.

• CPI data: Rising inflation pushes traders toward gold as an inflation hedge, but also signals likely rate hikes that strengthen the USD.

Nearly every commodity trades in US dollars. When the dollar strengthens, buyers in euros, yen, or ringgit pay more for the same barrel of oil or ounce of gold, so demand falls.

A practical example: if the DXY (dollar index) jumps after a Federal Reserve meeting, gold priced in euros becomes more expensive overnight, even if the USD price of gold stays flat. That alone can push traders to sell.

Interest rate decisions hit commodities from two sides. Higher rates raise the cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, because investors can earn more from bonds instead. Higher rates also slow economic growth, which cuts industrial demand for oil.

CPI data carries a second-order effect beyond the headline number. Rising inflation pushes traders toward gold as a hedge against purchasing-power loss.

Rising CPI also signals that central banks are likely to raise rates, which feeds back into USD strength and weighs on broad commodity demand.

GDP and PMI readings round out the demand picture. Strong GDP growth and rising PMI figures signal more industrial activity, which lifts oil and base metal demand. Weak readings do the opposite, and traders often act on the data before official rate moves even happen.

Trader positioning and COT reports

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is a free weekly publication from the CFTC, available at CFTC.gov. It releases every Friday and reflects positions held as of the prior Tuesday, covering futures markets including gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas.

The report splits market participants into three groups, each with a different motive:

Managed Money: Hedge funds and large speculators trading for profit

Commercials: Producers and hedgers (miners, oil companies) who hedge physical exposure and usually take the opposite side

Non-Reportable: Small retail traders with positions below reporting thresholds

Focus on the Managed Money net position, which is simply longs minus shorts. It's the most useful directional signal because hedge funds drive short-term price momentum in commodity futures.

Multi-year extremes in Managed Money net longs signal crowded positioning and raise reversal risk, not trend confirmation.

Treat an unwind of longs as a bearish signal for your XAUUSD weekly bias when that same group starts reducing exposure.

Your weekly commodity analysis checklist

A weekly commodity analysis checklist is a four-step process: scan the macro calendar, review supply data, check COT positioning, then combine those inputs into a directional bias and basic trade plan, all done in under an hour every week.

Step 1: Check the macro calendar (CPI, FOMC, rates, USD)

Check the economic calendar for CPI release dates, FOMC meeting dates, and current interest rate expectations, then note the USD index (DXY) trend. These four inputs set the macro bias that drives gold, silver, and oil prices for the week. Check them before looking at any supply or positioning data.

• CPI (inflation report): A higher-than-expected print signals persistent inflation, which supports gold and silver as real-asset hedges and broadly lifts commodity prices including oil.

• FOMC (Fed rate decision) tone: A hawkish tone strengthens the USD and pressures gold, silver, and oil prices; a dovish tone weakens the dollar and gives commodities room to rally.

• Rate expectations: Track whether markets are pricing in more hikes, a pause, or cuts. Shifting expectations move gold and oil faster than the actual Fed decision does.

• DXY (US dollar index) trend: A rising dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign buyers, which reduces demand and weighs on gold, silver, and oil prices.

These four inputs come first because they define the macro direction that all supply, demand, and positioning data either confirms or contradicts.

Step 2: Track supply data (EIA inventories, OPEC, outages)

Check EIA weekly inventory reports (oil), OPEC production decisions, and unplanned outage news each week. Together they tell you whether supply is tightening or loosening, which directly moves commodity prices.

Supply data tells you whether physical markets are tightening or loosening. Three sources cover most of what moves oil prices week to week.

• EIA Weekly Inventory Report: Tracks crude oil and refined product stocks in U.S. storage. A draw (stockpiles falling) signals tightening supply, which is bullish (price-supportive). A build (stockpiles rising) signals oversupply, which is bearish (price-negative). Compare the headline figure to analyst estimates, because a bigger-than-expected draw carries more weight than the raw number alone.

• OPEC Production Decisions: OPEC+ sets output quotas periodically. Cuts tighten supply and support prices. Increases loosen supply and push prices lower. Track meeting dates because quota headlines can reprice oil quickly, even before physical flows change.

• Unplanned Outage News: Geopolitical disruptions, severe weather, or pipeline failures can remove supply without warning. Watch for:

• Conflict or sanctions affecting major producers

• Extreme weather shutting down rigs or refineries

• Pipeline or infrastructure failures

EIA publishes data mid-week on a fixed schedule. OPEC decisions are irregular, so track both on an ongoing basis.

Step 3: Review positioning (COT) and sentiment

Open the CFTC's weekly COT report, find your commodity's Managed Money net position, note whether it is at a historical extreme, and log whether large speculators are adding or reducing exposure.

The Commitments of Traders (COT) report is published every Friday on CFTC.gov and it's free. It shows how large institutional players are positioned across major markets, including:

• Gold

• Silver

• Oil

Focus on the Managed Money net position (longs minus shorts). The key question: is it near a historical extreme? When net longs are at a multi-year high, that's a crowded trade. Crowded trades carry reversal risk because most buyers are already in, leaving fewer to push price higher.

Watch for speculators actively reducing their net long position week over week. A sustained week-over-week reduction in net longs signals an unwind that precedes trend shifts, even before price charts confirm it.

Practical takeaway: Before entering a long on gold or oil, check whether Managed Money is already at an extreme net long. Extreme crowding means most buyers are already in — there are fewer new buyers left to push price higher, so the trade has limited upside and elevated reversal risk. Wait for a positioning reset, when net longs have fallen back toward average levels, before adding exposure.

Step 4: Turn the inputs into a weekly bias and simple trade plan

Score your macro, supply, and COT inputs as bullish, bearish, or neutral, tally the alignment, write a one-sentence bias, then define an entry trigger, stop-loss, and position size before the week opens.

With your macro, supply, and COT data collected, convert it into a single directional bias using this scoring process.

1. Score each input as bullish, bearish, or neutral so every data point becomes a vote, not just background noise. Assign one label to each of the three analysis layers:

• Macro: CPI direction, rate expectations, USD strength

• Supply: Inventory levels, production changes, OPEC decisions

• Positioning: COT net stance (commercials vs. speculators)

2. Tally the alignment because the number of agreeing inputs tells you how much conviction to trade with. Three inputs aligned = strong bias. Two against one = lean in the majority direction. All three mixed = no trade this week.

3. Write a one-sentence bias statement because it forces you to commit to a tradable decision instead of a vague narrative. For example: "Lean bearish on oil this week: inventories rising, OPEC output unchanged, USD strengthening." If you can't write it in one sentence, the bias isn't clear enough to act on.

4. Define your trade plan before the week opens. Set three things:

• Entry trigger: a specific price level or a scheduled data release

• Stop-loss: a defined exit if price moves against the bias

• Position size: sized to the stop distance, not your conviction level

Write these down before Monday. Changing them mid-week defeats the purpose of having a plan.

A bias tells you which direction to lean, not that the trade will work. Price can move against a well-reasoned bias, so the stop-loss is never optional.

Practice the workflow on VantoTrade MT5 ($25 test account)

VantoTrade lets you practice the full commodity analysis workflow on a live account with a $25 minimum deposit. Trade Gold, Silver, and Oil CFDs with raw spreads from 0.0 pips, and a broker that doesn't profit from your losses.

What to evaluate: spreads, execution, and withdrawals

Three things are worth checking during your test trade. A $25 minimum deposit keeps the stakes low while you run the workflow for real.

Spreads: Open a Gold (XAUUSD), Silver (XAGUSD), or oil CFD position during normal hours and record the quoted spread. Then repeat immediately before a scheduled release like CPI or EIA inventories. On a Standard account, spreads start from 1.0 pip with no commission. On a Raw account, they start from 0.0 pips but widen during volatility. Recording that widening range gives you a real cost-per-trade benchmark under pressure.

Execution: Place a market order during the news window and note how quickly it fills. Check whether the fill price matches the quoted price, or whether slippage occurred. VantoTrade doesn't profit from your losses. Orders go directly to liquidity providers, with no dealing desk in between, so the target is sub-28ms execution. Slippage during volatility tells you whether that holds in practice, which matters when your stops need to work exactly where you set them.

Withdrawals: After closing the test trade, request a small withdrawal and record the request time. Same-day processing is standard on most methods. Check the broker-side processing timestamp in your account history so you can verify it objectively. Fast withdrawal access matters when you need to reduce exposure quickly and can't wait days for funds to clear.

Run the checklist, place a small test trade, and review the result

Run your weekly checklist (macro calendar → supply data → COT positioning → bias), open MT5, select a commodity CFD, place a micro trade with a defined stop-loss, then log the result against your pre-trade bias.

Applying the analysis: gold, silver, and oil walkthroughs

The three commodity walkthroughs apply the weekly checklist to real instruments:

Gold (XAUUSD): reading inflation and rate signals

Gold (XAUUSD) rises when real interest rates fall or inflation expectations climb, and drops when the Fed signals higher-for-longer rates that strengthen the USD.

To apply that, you need one concept: real yields. Real yields are the nominal interest rate minus inflation expectations. When real yields rise, gold falls. When they fall, gold climbs.

Rate expectations reprice gold faster than actual Fed decisions. A single CPI surprise or a shift in Fed language can move XAUUSD sharply before any vote is taken.

Here's the three-input checklist for a weekly XAUUSD bias:

• CPI print direction. A hotter-than-expected CPI triggers immediate repricing of the rate path: markets price in more hikes sooner, real yields jump, and gold sells off. A softer CPI does the reverse, compressing rate expectations and supporting gold. The market moves on the expectation shift, not the eventual decision.

• FOMC tone (hawkish vs. dovish). Hawkish language (emphasis on staying higher for longer) pushes real yields up and strengthens the USD, both weighing on gold. Dovish signals or a pause in hike language compress real yields and lift gold.

• DXY trend as the amplifier. Gold is priced in USD, so a rising dollar presses gold lower even when the rate picture is mixed. A weakening DXY amplifies any bullish signal from CPI or FOMC inputs.

Verdict: treat 3-of-3 alignment as high-conviction, 2-of-3 as moderate, and conflicts as neutral. For example: in early 2023, a softer-than-expected CPI print caused markets to reprice the Fed's rate path lower immediately. The FOMC held rates but dropped its tightening bias in the statement. DXY began trending down the same week. All three inputs aligned bullish. A trader running this checklist would have scored a high-conviction long bias on XAUUSD going into that week, without needing a specific price target. Hold no directional bias and wait for clarity when inputs conflict (hot CPI but a weakening DXY).

Silver (XAGUSD): monetary metal meets industrial demand

Silver (XAGUSD) is a dual-role asset driven by both monetary demand (like gold) and industrial consumption across solar, electronics, and EV sectors.

Silver trades on two separate forces at once.

The monetary side tracks rates and USD just like gold does. The industrial side responds to PMI and GDP data, because physical silver is a key input in solar panels, electronics, and EVs.

Monetary layer: Apply the same rate logic you'd use for gold. When the Fed is hawkish and the DXY is rising, silver's monetary demand weakens. A stronger dollar raises the real cost of holding non-yielding metals, so buyers pull back.

Industrial layer: Check the ISM Manufacturing PMI and major GDP releases. A PMI reading above 50 signals expanding factory activity, which lifts physical demand from manufacturers across:

• Solar panel production

• Consumer electronics

• EV supply chains

A PMI below 50 points the other way, reducing industrial offtake.

When both layers point the same direction, the bias is stronger. Hawkish Fed and weak PMI means silver faces pressure from two sides. Dovish Fed and rising PMI supports a bullish lean. When they conflict, treat the industrial signal as a modifier: a bearish monetary setup softens when PMI is climbing, but the monetary side stays the primary driver.

Oil (Brent/WTI): EIA inventories and OPEC decisions

Oil prices are driven by two primary data inputs: weekly EIA inventory reports (supply signal) and OPEC production decisions (output policy signal).

Three inputs drive the weekly oil bias for Brent and WTI. Here's how to score each one before the week opens.

1. EIA inventory report (Wednesday, weekly)

Verdict: treat the estimate gap as the highest-weight weekly signal, not the raw draw or build.

A draw in crude stockpiles is bullish. A build is bearish. Here's why the comparison to analyst estimates matters more than the headline number: markets price in the expected figure before the release. Prices face selling pressure when the actual draw is smaller than a large forecast, even though supply technically fell. Prices rally when a build comes in smaller than the bearish consensus.

Here's how to apply it:

• Draw larger than estimates: bullish

• Draw smaller than estimates: bearish relative to expectations

• Build larger than estimates: bearish

• Build smaller than estimates: bullish relative to expectations

2. OPEC stance

Verdict: cuts are bullish, output increases are bearish, and surprises carry more weight than scheduled decisions.

Production cuts tighten supply and support prices. Output increases add supply and push prices down. OPEC+ does not operate on a fixed weekly schedule, so announcements between formal quarterly meetings can hit without warning. A surprise cut mid-week overrides any other signal in your scoring. Run a news alert for OPEC+ emergency statements so you're not caught off-guard.

3. USD and rate environment

Verdict: a strengthening dollar and hawkish Fed are both bearish for oil demand.

Oil is priced in USD globally. When the dollar rises, oil becomes more expensive for buyers holding euros, yen, or emerging-market currencies, which reduces demand directly. Hawkish Fed expectations reinforce this by signalling slower economic growth, which cuts industrial demand for oil at the source.

Watch DXY direction and any Fed communications that shift rate expectations for the week ahead.

Scoring the three inputs

Here's the framework:

Score each input as bullish, bearish, or neutral. Two or more signals in the same direction gives you a directional lean. Write it as one sentence before the week opens: "Bias is bearish on oil this week: EIA showed a surprise build, OPEC held output steady, and USD strength adds demand-side pressure."

Common questions

What are the 5 key principles of fundamental analysis?

Fundamental analysis rests on 5 core principles:

• Supply and demand: Price moves when supply and demand fall out of balance. More supply than demand pushes prices down, and vice versa.

• Economic indicators: Data points like GDP, inflation, and employment shape the broader market environment that assets trade within.

• Geopolitical events: Wars, sanctions, and elections can disrupt supply chains or shift demand overnight.

• Central bank policy: Interest rate decisions affect currency values, borrowing costs, and capital flows across markets.

• Market sentiment: How traders and institutions feel about an asset drives short-term price behaviour, sometimes regardless of the underlying data.

Can you use fundamental and technical analysis together when trading commodities?

Yes, and combining them is a practical approach for most traders. Use fundamental analysis to establish your directional bias (for example, a bearish view on oil because of rising inventories), then use technical analysis to time your entry at a key support or resistance level. FA tells you what to trade and why; TA tells you when.

Where can I find free data for commodity fundamental analysis?

Four reliable free sources cover the main commodity drivers:

• EIA.gov: Weekly oil and gas inventory reports from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

• CFTC.gov: Commitments of Traders (COT) reports showing how large speculators and commercials are positioned.

• Investing.com or TradingEconomics.com: Economic calendars with scheduled data releases across all major markets.

Is fundamental analysis better suited for long-term investing or short-term commodity trading?

FA works for both timeframes, but it is not just for long-term investing. For short-term CFD traders, FA is useful for building a weekly bias: if supply data is bearish and the economic backdrop is weak, you lean short for the week and let TA confirm entries. The bias does not need to last months to be worth having.