Educational content. This article explains how spot gold and gold futures differ in pricing, expiry and cost, using arithmetic examples. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. CFD trading carries significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.
Spot gold is the price of gold for settlement within about two business days. A gold futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell 100 troy ounces at a fixed price on a set future date. The futures price sits above spot by the cost of carrying gold until that date, and the gap closes as expiry approaches.
This article defines both prices, shows the carry arithmetic, explains why futures expire and spot does not, and compares what each costs to hold. The figures are mechanics, not forecasts.
What Is Spot Gold?
Spot gold is gold priced for near-immediate settlement, conventionally two business days after the trade date. The deepest spot market is the over-the-counter market in London, where trades are typically in unallocated gold (a claim on a bullion bank) rather than in delivered bars. The benchmark published from that market, the LBMA Gold Price, is set in electronic auctions for spot, unallocated London gold, run by ICE Benchmark Administration twice each business day, at 10:30 and 15:00 London time.
Spot gold is quoted in US dollars per troy ounce. It has no expiry date and no delivery month. A spot price is a single number at a single moment, which is why it is the reference most retail platforms display as "XAUUSD". The pair name reads as gold (XAU) priced in US dollars (USD), the same way EURUSD reads as euros priced in dollars.
What Is a Gold Futures Contract?
A gold futures contract is a standardised exchange-traded agreement to deliver or receive a fixed quantity of gold on a set date at a price agreed today. The best-known contract is COMEX gold futures, listed by CME Group. According to the CME Group gold futures fact card, one contract covers 100 troy ounces, the minimum price move is USD 0.10 per ounce (USD 10 per contract), and the contract is physically deliverable, so a holder who does not close or roll the position before the last trading day faces delivery.
Three features separate a future from spot:
- A delivery month. Each contract belongs to a named month and stops trading shortly before it. CME's listed months and rules change, so check the current specification on the exchange site rather than relying on a fixed list.
- A standard size. The size is set by the exchange, not chosen by the trader.
- Exchange margin. The exchange clearing house sets the margin, which can be raised or lowered by the exchange.
How Do the Spot and Futures Price Relate?
The futures price equals the spot price plus the cost of carrying gold until delivery, which is why a gold future normally trades above spot. A buyer who takes the future instead of buying gold today keeps the money in the meantime, and the seller who holds gold has to store and insure it. The simplified relationship is:
Futures price = spot price x (1 + annual rate x years to delivery)
Gold pays no dividend or interest, so the carry has no offsetting income. Storage and insurance add a small amount that this simplified formula leaves out.
A worked example with an assumed rate. The rate below is a hypothetical input, not a statement about current rates. Take the Vanto feed snapshot of 10 October 2026, which showed XAUUSD at USD 4,194.38 (bid):
| Step | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Assumed annual rate | hypothetical | 4% |
| Carry for 1 month | 4,194.38 x 0.04 x (1/12) | USD 13.98 per ounce |
| Carry for 3 months | 4,194.38 x 0.04 x (3/12) | USD 41.94 per ounce |
| Three-month futures price | 4,194.38 + 41.94 | USD 4,236.32 |
| Gap per 100-ounce contract | 41.94 x 100 | USD 4,194 |
The gap exists even if spot never moves. It is the price of time, not a view on direction. The same logic ties into the cost mechanics in basis trading, which describes the spot-minus-futures difference for commodities.
What Happens to the Gap as Expiry Approaches?
The gap between futures and spot shrinks toward zero as the delivery date approaches, because the carry period shrinks toward zero. This is called convergence. At expiry, a deliverable future and spot refer to the same gold at the same time, so their prices must be close.
Using the hypothetical rate again, the same contract has a smaller carry as time passes:
| Time to delivery | Carry per ounce (4% rate, spot USD 4,194.38) |
|---|---|
| 3 months | USD 41.94 |
| 2 months | USD 27.96 |
| 1 month | USD 13.98 |
| 0 | USD 0 |
If spot stayed exactly flat, a long futures position bought at the three-month price would lose USD 41.94 per ounce by expiry, because the premium drains away. This is the reason a long futures holder can lose money while spot is unchanged, and it is the same effect described for volatility futures in how to trade the VIX. The spot price movement and the convergence loss are two separate components of the result.
What Is Rolling a Futures Contract?
Rolling means closing a position in the expiring contract and opening the same position in a later one, and it exists because every futures contract has an end date. A trader who wants continuous exposure repeats this before each expiry.
A hypothetical example, with spot at USD 4,200 and the 4% assumed rate:
- Front month, 1 month out: 4,200 x (1 + 0.04 x 1/12) = USD 4,214.
- Next month, 3 months out: 4,200 x (1 + 0.04 x 3/12) = USD 4,242.
- A long holder sells the front contract and buys the next one, paying the USD 28 per ounce difference in price level.
- On a 100-ounce contract, that is USD 2,800 of roll gap.
The roll gap is not an extra fee on top of an otherwise free position. It is the carry that the later contract already prices in, and the holder pays it once at each roll instead of daily. Each roll also costs a spread on both legs. When the curve is inverted (later contracts cheaper than nearer ones, called backwardation), the same roll produces a credit instead of a cost.
Spot gold has no end date, so there is nothing to roll.
How Does a Spot Gold CFD Fit In?
A spot gold CFD tracks the spot price, has no expiry, and charges its holding cost as a daily swap instead of through a futures premium. A CFD is a contract between trader and broker on the price difference, not a delivery claim; the mechanism is covered in what a CFD is.
In the Vanto feed snapshot of 10 October 2026, XAUUSD is described as "Spot Gold vs US Dollar", with the following specification:
| Property | XAUUSD (Vanto feed snapshot, 10 October 2026) |
|---|---|
| Underlying pricing | Spot gold in US dollars per ounce |
| Contract size | 100 troy ounces per lot |
| Minimum / maximum lot | 0.01 / 20 |
| Lot step | 0.01 |
| Leverage cap (metals) | 1:500 |
| Expiry | None |
| Triple swap day | Wednesday |
Because the contract size is 100 ounces, one lot has the same ounce exposure as one COMEX gold future. A USD 1 move in the gold price changes the result by USD 100 on one lot of either. The contract size concept is explained in what is contract size.
The table below shows what different lot sizes mean at the snapshot bid of USD 4,194.38 and the 1:500 cap. It shows exposure and margin, which are the inputs for sizing, not a suggested trade size.
| Lot size | Ounces | Notional value (USD) | Margin at 1:500 (USD) | Result of a USD 1 move (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.01 | 1 | 4,194.38 | 8.39 | 1 |
| 0.10 | 10 | 41,943.80 | 83.89 | 10 |
| 1.00 | 100 | 419,438.00 | 838.88 | 100 |
| 5.00 | 500 | 2,097,190.00 | 4,194.38 | 500 |
Source: Vanto feed snapshot, 10 October 2026. Margin = notional value / 500. Figures move with the gold price.
The smallest lot of 0.01 gives exposure to 1 ounce. A single COMEX contract cannot be divided, so the smallest futures position is 100 ounces. Leverage magnifies losses as well as gains: on 1 lot, a USD 8.39 per ounce move against the position is a loss of USD 839, equal to the whole margin posted (8.39 x 100 = 839).
Margin call is at 100% and stop-out is at 50% on Vanto accounts. How these levels work is explained in what is stop-out level, and the margin formula is in what is margin.
How Does Holding Cost Differ Between Spot and Futures?
A futures position pays its holding cost inside the price and settles it at the roll, while a spot CFD pays it as a daily swap that appears in the account each night. The two reach for the same economic idea, the cost of financing gold, through different channels.
| Feature | Spot gold CFD (XAUUSD) | Gold futures (COMEX) |
|---|---|---|
| Price reference | Spot gold, USD per ounce | Contract for a delivery month |
| Expiry | None | Yes, fixed schedule |
| Holding cost | Daily swap, debit or credit | Built into the futures premium |
| Roll required | No | Yes, before each expiry |
| Position size | 0.01 lot (1 ounce) upward, step 0.01 | 100 ounces per contract |
| Margin set by | Broker, 1:500 cap for metals | Exchange clearing house |
| Delivery | None, cash-settled difference | Physical delivery possible |
| Convergence loss | Not applicable | Yes, as premium decays |
In the snapshot, the XAUUSD long swap is a debit and the short swap is a credit. Swap values change with financing rates and with the broker's own parameters, so they are not a measure of futures carry and should be read from the symbol specification in MT5 on the day. The triple-swap day for XAUUSD is Wednesday: positions held through the Wednesday rollover are charged three days of swap to cover the weekend. The mechanism is explained in what is swap and what is triple swap day.
What Is the Difference in Trading Hours?
Spot gold trades almost around the clock on weekdays because it is an over-the-counter market passing between London, New York and Asian centres, while a futures contract trades during the exchange's session. The liquidity of both markets overlaps in the London and New York sessions, which is covered in best trading sessions for gold. A spot CFD follows the broker's quoted hours.
When the Spot-Futures Relationship Breaks
The simple carry formula describes the usual relationship, and several real conditions break it:
- Rates change. The carry depends on the financing rate. If rates move during the holding period, the premium changes without any change in gold.
- Stress in the physical market. In periods of strain, such as a squeeze on deliverable metal, futures can trade at an unusually large gap to spot, or below it.
- Expiry timing. Near expiry, small differences in delivery terms and liquidity can make the two prices diverge briefly.
- Different contracts, different prices. A longer-dated future carries more carry than a nearer one, so two "gold futures" prices on the same day can differ by tens of dollars.
- A CFD quoted off a future. Some CFDs are priced from a front-month future rather than from spot. This is stated in the instrument specification; always check which price a symbol follows before comparing it to a news quote.
A common mistake is to compare a spot chart with a futures chart and read the gap as a signal. Most of the gap is time premium. Another mistake is to apply the futures roll cost to a spot CFD, where no roll exists and the cost arrives through swap.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which price do news websites quote as the gold price?
Many headlines quote spot gold, the London over-the-counter price in US dollars per ounce. Some report the front-month COMEX future instead, so the two figures can differ by the carry premium. The headline normally states which one it uses.
Why is gold futures price higher than spot?
The future includes the cost of carrying gold to the delivery date, mainly financing, plus storage and insurance. Gold pays no income, so nothing offsets that cost in the price. The premium shrinks as the delivery date nears.
Can I take delivery of gold from a CFD?
No. A CFD settles in cash on the price difference and never delivers metal. Physical delivery is a feature of exchange futures.
Does a spot gold CFD ever expire?
No. A spot CFD has no expiry date and no roll. The cost of holding it overnight appears as a daily swap, which can be a debit or a credit depending on the direction of the position.
Is 1 lot of gold the same size as 1 futures contract?
On Vanto's XAUUSD, one lot is 100 troy ounces, the same quantity as one COMEX gold future. The difference is that a CFD allows lots as small as 0.01, which is 1 ounce, while a future cannot be split.
Do spot gold and futures margins differ?
Yes. For a futures contract the exchange clearing house sets margin and can change it. For XAUUSD CFDs at Vanto, margin follows the 1:500 leverage cap for metals, so it equals notional value divided by 500.
Calculate the Numbers Before You Trade
Notional value, margin and the result of each price move depend on the live price and the lot size. Use the trading calculator to compute them for XAUUSD at current prices, and read how to trade gold for the wider picture of gold markets.
Risk warning. Trading securities, futures, options, and contracts for differences are complex financial instruments that require knowledge and understanding. Prices can fluctuate significantly and securities may become valueless. Investors may incur losses exceeding the potential for profits. Trading on margin can result in losses greater than the amount initially deposited. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The information in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Consider whether CFD trading is appropriate for your circumstances and seek independent advice if necessary.